MAGNA's Global Ad Forecast for December 2024 reveals that ad revenues reached $933 billion in 2024, marking a 10% increase in line with mid-year expectations. Traditional media owners (TMO) saw their advertising revenues grow by an estimated 4% to $274 billion, their best performance in 14 years, excluding the post-COVID recovery of 2021.

But while traditional media owners have seen better results in the past year, the "big three" of Google, Meta and Amazon outperformed again - their advertising revenues reaccelerated in 2023-2024 after stagnating between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

Magna said since mid-2023 and throughout 2024 Meta and YouTube had benefitted from better monetization of the fast-growing short vertical videos formats, while Amazon benefitted from CPG brands increasing lower-funnel and online marketing budgets as ecommerce sales (historically lagging in CPG) grew. Google, Meta, and Amazon reported 1Q-3Q advertising revenues up +11%, +22% and +21% respectively.

As they outperform market growth, the big three increased their combined market share: Magna said they now account for 51% of total advertising sales globally, and 61% of ad sales outside China.

Among the top 20 media companies monitored by MAGNA, most Digital Pure Players performed well in the first three quarters of 2024 e.g., Bytedance/Tiktok +20%, Apple +20%, and Snap +17%. Traditional Media Owners saw lower growth and contrasted performances: Comcast (largest TMO, driven by Olympics on NBC) +17%, Disney +6%, Warner Bros. Discovery -5%, RTL Group -8%, JCDecaux +13%.

The advertising sales of Digital Pure Players (DPP) (Search, Retail, Social, Short-Form Digital Video) increased by +13% to reach $659 billion, driven by Search/Commerce ad formats (+12%) Short-Form Video (+12%) and Social Media (+18%). DPP ad sales were boosted by organic growth factors including competition in ecommerce (e.g., Temu and Shein now targeting European consumers), the rise of retail media networks ($144 billion), AI targeting and placement algorithms, and better monetization of short vertical videos in social and video apps.

But after a strong first half (global ad spend +12%), the ad market slowed slightly in the second half (+8%). DPP ad sales grew by double-digits through the year despite tougher comps in the second half.

TMO ad sales were bolstered by a record number of cyclical events and a 12% growth in TMO’s non-linear ad sales (e.g., ad-supported streaming +18%) that now account for 25% of total TMO ad revenues. Meanwhile, the advertising sales of Digital Pure Players (DPP) increased by 13% to reach $659 billion, driven by Search/Commerce ad formats (+12%), Short-Form Video (+12%), and Social Media (+18%).

Among the most dynamic ad markets in 2024 were France and the US (both +12%), India and the UK (both +11%). Growth was more subdued in Japan and Canada (both +8%), China (+7%), Germany and Australia (both +6%). The US market remained the largest with $380 billion, ahead of China ($155bn).

Consumer Packaged Goods/Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (CPG/FMCG), Government, Betting, and Finance were among the fastest-growing industry verticals in 2024, while Tech recovered, driven by “AI-Powered” marketing, and Travel slowed down. In 2025, MAGNA expects Auto, CPG and Tech to be dynamic, but Auto is vulnerable to trade and incentive policies.

By 2029, the share of total revenues that are represented by linear advertising formats will have fallen to just 18%, representing about the same number of dollars ($66 billion) as they do today ($68 billion), Magna said. Digital pure players, on the other hand, will represent 82% of total budgets and $304 billion, significantly higher than their 2024 total ($221 billion).

Vincent Létang, EVP, Global Market Research at MAGNA, said: "The strong growth of advertising spending in 2024, despite a challenging economic environment, was of course driven by an unusually high number of major cyclical events but, more fundamentally, media innovation is what attracts a growing share of marketing budgets into advertising formats. Digital Pure-Play ad formats (Search, Retail Search, Social and Short-Form Video) are fueled by the rise of Commerce Media redirecting billions of dollars from trade marketing into digital formats. The growing reach of ad-supported CTV streaming makes cross-platform long-form video more attractive to advertisers as it now offers scale on top of addressability and brand safety. With no major cyclical drivers in 2025 and an uncertain economic outlook, MAGNA expects ad spend growth rates to slow, but the organic factors will remain at work, stabilizing TMO ad revenues, and growing DPP ad sales.”

Leigh Terry, CEO IPG Mediabrands APAC, said: “The APAC advertising market is thriving, growing by 7.5% in 2024 to reach $289 billion. This growth is fueled by digital advertising, with search and social media leading the charge. While traditional media is seeing modest growth, digital pure players are driving the majority of the market share. The future is bright for digital advertising in APAC, with its share of total budgets projected to reach 82% by 2029. Despite some economic uncertainties, the overall market remains stable and poised for continued growth."