Social media platforms have captured an enormous share of advertising investment, positioning themselves as one of the first partners on most media plans. The combination of precise targeting, vast reach, and real-time engagement has made social platforms a dominant force in digital marketing strategies. However, despite their continued influence, there are signs that we may be approaching the peak—if not the beginning of a decline in both social media effectiveness and reliance.

Over the past five years, investment into social platforms in Australia has surged by 85 per cent. Growth has been accelerated by the rise of TikTok, Reddit, and Pinterest, which have seen explosive gains of 2,395 per cent, 40,794 per cent, and 332 per cent respectively. But that's the cream, from relatively low starting points. Meta, the long-standing juggernaut, has managed a 58 per cent increase while Google has notched 45 per cent (it faces different challenges with the rise of AI search, but that is for another time). The lone outlier in this trend is X (formerly Twitter), which has seen a 75 per cent drop in investment since Elon Musk took control. 

So it’s clear the adage has changed: no longer does "nobody get fired for putting TV on the plan" – today, social and Google are the default inclusions, as marketers chase short-term results. While this boom has benefited social platforms enormously, the ground beneath them is starting to shift. Regulatory pressures, rising misinformation, reduced access to news content, and growing concerns around mental health are converging into a set of headwinds that advertisers can no longer ignore.

A global spotlight on Australia's online safety laws

Australia has become the global focal point for child online safety. In a world-first, the Albanese government has passed legislation that will impose a 16-year-old minimum age requirement for platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and X. Set to take effect in December, these laws shift the responsibility from users to the platforms themselves. Tech companies that fail to implement effective safeguards could face fines of up to $49.5 million for systemic breaches.

Time Magazine featured Australia’s legislation on its cover, calling it a bold and necessary move to rein-in tech giants. PM Albanese and opposition leader Dutton have both refused to negotiate the laws, even under diplomatic pressure from the Trump administration amid escalating trade tensions.

Dutton echoed this stance, reaffirming that Australia would not trade its social media laws for favourable treatment in trade talks. “We’re not negotiating on that basis,” he said. Both leaders made it clear: protecting kids online is non-negotiable.

The real-world impact on young Australians

As a father of three young boys this really hits home for me as new research from 2023 to 2025 reveals that social media’s influence on children, adolescents, and young adults is more complicated than once thought. While there are clear benefits in areas like creativity and civic engagement, the negative impacts are becoming harder to dismiss:

• Mental health: Increased anxiety, depression, and lowered self-esteem are consistently linked to social comparison and excessive use.
• Body image issues: Young girls are disproportionately affected, reporting dissatisfaction with their appearance due to curated, idealised content.
• Cyberbullying: The spread and psychological impact of online harassment continue to rise.
• Educational impact: Mixed results, with some evidence showing that social media distracts from learning, while other studies suggest educational benefits from curated content.
• Social behaviour: Shifts in both prosocial and antisocial behaviours are being observed in teens.
• Career and identity: Social platforms are increasingly shaping young people's career aspirations and identity formation.
• Policy gaps: There is growing consensus on the need for stricter regulations and better media literacy education.

Stricter age restrictions and platform limits

In response to public pressure, governments and platforms have begun enforcing stricter age restrictions. Platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat now face tighter regulation, especially around the targeting of young users. This is shrinking the addressable audience for advertisers and increasing the costs of targeting these demographics responsibly.

Declining access to news and source verification

Meta and other platforms have started limiting or removing access to news content, particularly in Australia. This reduces opportunities for brands to advertise in high-trust environments and aligns ads with credible journalism. Without news adjacency, advertisers must rely more heavily on influencer marketing or create their own high-quality content – a much heavier lift in both resources and credibility

The buyer beware reality of social platforms

Social media has always been a "buyer beware" environment for advertisers. No matter how strict brand safety protocols are, platforms built around user-generated content are inherently unpredictable. Ads can and do appear next to questionable content. Algorithms change. Moderation is imperfect.

Even with keyword blocks and AI tools, there’s no guarantee of control. This has long been the trade-off of social media advertising: reach and speed in exchange for context and control. And as misinformation and unverified content become more common, the reputational risks are climbing.

According to Channel Factor's latest report, concerns about content adjacency on social platforms remain unresolved. Their 2024 internal testing revealed that 25 per cent of ads typically run in unsafe or misaligned content environments, further highlighting the scale of the issue. The report highlights that nearly 64 per cent of Australian media buyers have encountered brand safety issues in the past year when advertising on social platforms. Even more telling, 72 per cent of marketers surveyed said they are actively reviewing their investments in platforms that do not provide adequate transparency or control over ad placement. The report underscores a growing frustration within the industry: while social offers scale and engagement, it often comes at the cost of visibility and assurance.

These insights reinforce what many in the industry already suspect – that despite robust safety measures, the unpredictable nature of user-generated content makes social a persistent risk. Advertisers need to weigh that risk against the benefits, and ensure their brand values aren't being compromised in pursuit of reach.

Legal precedent in the UK: Targeted ads under scrutiny

Finally, in a recent legal case in the UK has added new weight to growing concerns about how social media platforms use personal data for advertising. Tanya O'Carroll, a tech policy and human rights advocate, successfully challenged Meta in a lawsuit over the use of her personal data for targeted advertising. The case resulted in Meta agreeing to stop serving her personalised ads based on inferred interests and demographics.

The UK's Information Commissioner's Office sided with O'Carroll, asserting that targeted online advertising qualifies as direct marketing – giving individuals the right to object under GDPR. The case sets a precedent that could encourage others to assert similar rights, potentially limiting how platforms use behavioural data for ad targeting. Meta responded by defending its ad-funded model and floated the possibility of offering a paid, ad-free version of its services in the UK, as it does in Europe.

This ruling signals that individual users may soon gain more control over their digital footprint – and by extension, what advertising they are exposed to. It also puts advertisers on notice: consent, transparency, and user control are no longer optional but central to the future of digital media. 

Are we over-investing in social?

Don’t get me wrong – social media is a key ingredient in the marketing mix and will continue to be because of the sheer scale it offers. But from my point of view, we need to ask: are we putting too much weight on platforms that are facing real, structural challenges to their future viability as advertising channels?

In my opinion, yes. We are at a point where a course correction is needed. Marketers should prepare for a swing back toward aligning brands with more reputable, credible, and – importantly – local media partners. Social media isn’t going anywhere, but its role may need to be recalibrated if we want to deliver sustainable business results and protect brand trust.

What comes next: A strategic rebalance

Given these signals, Australian advertisers should consider a strategic rebalance and scrutinise the role of the social platforms and how they are being deployed to amplify our messages.

• Reevaluate media mix models: Ensure you're not overweight on platforms with declining user trust.
• Invest in first-party data: With targeting limitations rising, owning your audience data will be essential.
• Double down on content and influence: Quality, credibility, and connection matter more than ever.
• Reassess brand safety protocols: Accept that some risk is inherent in social, and prepare accordingly.

We may not have reached the total decline of social media advertising, but it’s fair to say we are approaching a turning point. The golden age of unchecked growth is over. Now comes the hard part: reevaluating, rebalancing, and recommitting to marketing channels that drive not just reach but relevance, trust, and long-term value for our clients and brands. For Australian advertisers, that means being sharper, more intentional, and more willing to break the "default plan" that has favoured social-first strategies. The headwinds are here – it’s time we adjust our sails.