After a turbulent year in TV, the linear decline only continues while BVOD is growing but fragmented. Audiences aren’t gone, they’re just spread across streaming, linear, Kayo, YouTube, TikTok, and other channels. As a result, the gap between traditional panel-based metrics and outcomes is set to widen more than ever when it comes reach, frequency and ratings.

The harsh truth is that no one is guaranteed a place on tomorrow’s media plan. There’s nowhere to hide so we have to be able to prove the impact of TV. The next day, in real-time and not in post-analysis a few weeks later.

There’s a real watershed moment coming - the notion of a level playing field is finally about to be real. Historically, this meant an industry-wide definition of what constitutes a view (2 seconds, 5 seconds, more?). But a new source of truth of beckons.

A true level playing field will be one where attention and business impact keep score and it will be here before you know it. Networks that haven’t deeply analysed the relationship between old and outcome metrics are in for a surprise.

Intriguingly, this will be as much an issue for the new players as the old. All streaming services, YouTube and Meta risk getting dialled back on media plans as brands gather more data on how their advertising really works. Absolute unique reach and impression delivery driven from big data become unilaterally aligned to the outcome.

When this new level playing field emerges, those who aren’t in the arena will be seen to be hiding. After all, those who play and don’t get the result can work on their product to improve their performance and drive better campaign effectiveness plus a better viewing experience. Either way, it’s going to catch up with you. It’s better to know where you sit so you can do what’s necessary to improve.

As we make our way into upfront season, here are three inevitable trends to look for:
 

1. Outcome-based measurement is going to be industrialised

The speed at which the industry can get data is now faster and more cost effective than ever. There’s no cleaner source of truth for showing that advertising works. It used to just be the massive brands that could access this information but it’s now becoming more and more efficient for all brands and agencies to do this.
 

2. Sport’s unmatched role in driving premium ad inventory

What are the new rules of the level playing field? It’s about engagement, interest, passion and the moments that count for the Aussie consumer. When the siren sounds, be it Origin, the Australian Open, or a BBL final, viewers still turn up en masse. The power of LIVE goes through the roof!

• NRL, AFL, Cricket, and now women’s sport (WBBL, AFLW, Matildas) are the most powerful real-time, ad-supported mass moments
• Fans are engaged, emotionally invested and multi-screening, perfect for cross-channel activation and e-commerce
• Brand-safe, high-trust environments are in short supply - another way which sport delivers.
   

3. The role of local content

The other truly powerful vehicles are Australian scripted and reality formats. Many new shows quickly become proven hits, such as The Twelve, Billion Dollar Playground and Mix Tape, driving loyalty and ad recall.

The winners will be the networks brave enough to experiment in formats, with interesting, new and different programming to capture audience attention, rather than relying on the same old tired shows. The shows that drive the greatest impact for advertisers will offer cultural adjacency, enabling brands to show up in relevant, resonant places.
 

The winning formula for TV = Live Sport + Local Stories + CTV

The real winning formula for TV will be the combination of powerfully engaging, premium content with the data potential of connected TV and BVOD.

Smart brands won’t just be buying time; they’ll be buying moments of impact and genuine cultural relevance. In the race to chase eyeballs and attribution, don’t overlook where the attention is: "They’re not just content blocks - they’re cultural tentpoles".

Another shift I hope to see is the return of true industry collaboration. I anticipate the industry will be surprised at how quickly we all align to work together as one team to embrace the future and demonstrate the power of TV to advertisers.

Expect signals of cross-industry partnership, including changes in structure and new partnerships that would have seemed inconceivable even five years ago.

So, get ready for plenty of surprises this upfronts season. It’s time to enter the game – and show you have the gumption. You have a choice: make it hard and wrap it up with bureaucracy, or just get it done. Enter the game and play to win.