Advertising: Prepare for two more tough years
Australia’s ad growth will almost halve in 2020 and the following year could be just as tough, according to Zenith’s latest forecasts.
Australian spend for 2019 is expected to sit at 2.1 per cent once all data is in, per Zenith’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts report. It predicts Australian adspend to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2020, remain broadly the same in 2021 before picking up in 2022.
“Assuming that the economy stabilises both locally and globally, we do anticipate a stronger market from 2022, with the current estimate sitting at 2.7 per cent. Although we’re expecting a slow down, digital advertising in all its forms will continue to grow at a healthy rate. This reflects both the continuing migration of audiences to online platforms and the transformational impact of 5G,” said Zenith Sydney’s Head of Investment, Elizabeth Baker.
She said internet adspend, expected to achieve 7 per cent growth for 2019, will drop to 4 per cent over the next two years.
The report outlines continuing global trends of rising prices for traditional mass reach media as TV audiences are lost to non-commercial audiences such as video streaming. Meanwhile, adblockers are having a similar effect on digital advertising.
Despite that, Zenith said online video and social media will remain the fastest growing channels between now and 2022. Cinema will take third place, driven by surging demand in China.
It predicts television will record zero growth over the next three years, as price inflation counterbalances the decline in global audiences. Newspaper adspend will shrink by 4.5 per cent a year to 2022, and magazines will shrink by 8.1 per cent a year, according to the report.
Overall, US-China trade war is hurting global ad growth prospects. Zenith’s head of forecasting Jonathan Barnard said if that is settled, the market should pick up in 2021.